TERMS OF REFERENCE
Spatial Analysis of the Characteristics and Changes of Slum and Informal Settlements in Addis Ababa – Integrative Policy Review & Reporting
General Information
This assignment aims to commission a consultant on a fixed price contract to collaborate with the World Resources Institute (WRI) on a three-month study for the development of a Spatial Analysis of the Characteristics and Changes of Slum and Informal Settlements in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The study will examine the relationship between thirty years of satellite-derived settlement dynamics in Addis Ababa and the evolution of urban development policy. The deadline for submitting the technical and financial proposal is July 4th, 2025.
WRI’s geospatial team will provide a fully processed time series of settlement maps and accompanying statistics. The consultant will be responsible for synthesizing the technical findings, leading the policy analysis, integrating both strands into a cohesive evidence base, co-authoring the final report and facilitating stakeholder validation events.
About WRI
Founded in 1982, The World Resources Institute (WRI) is a global environmental think tank that goes beyond research to put ideas into action. We work with governments, companies, and civil society to build solutions to urgent environmental challenges. WRI’s transformative ideas protect the earth and promote development because sustainability is essential to meeting human needs and fulfilling human aspirations in the future.
Work Description
The consultant will translate the imagery-based analysis into policy-relevant insight, review and analyze legislation and programs that have shaped slum and informal growth since 1994, interpret causal linkages, frame recommendations, and prepare the internal reports in close collaboration with WRI and specialists at the city and ministry levels.
Consultant Level
The assignment is open to an individual offering expertise in urban economics, housing policy research, spatial planning/GIS, and stakeholder facilitation. The consultant will work closely with a core team from WRI Africa.
Duration
Three (3) calendar months from contract signature.
Expected Start Date
Immediately upon signing the contract (anticipated July 2025).
Project Background
Addis Ababa now hosts more than 7 million residents and will remain one of Africa’s fastest-growing large cities over the next decade. Expanding at roughly 3.2 percent per year, the capital’s physical footprint has grown just as quickly, coupled with a fall in urban density from 17,000 to 13,000 people per km² between 1987 to 2017
Rapid spatial growth has outpaced formal planning and service provision. Out of the total housing stock, close to 70 percent of housing is classified as dilapidated or otherwise fails to meet basic adequacy standards, reflecting the prevalence of slum and informal settlements in the city core and on the expanding periphery. This reflects the level of access to basic services and limited infrastructure development, which resulted in limited connectivity and raised costs. Moreover, climate-related hazards compound these challenges. A recent modelling exercise by WRI warns that rising demand, climate variability and upstream land-use change already threaten the reliability of the city’s water-supply catchments, underscoring the need to integrate resource-management data into urban policy decisions. The extent of built-up land exposed to riverine and pluvial flooding more than doubled between 1985 and 2015, growing at 4.1 percent per year—significantly faster than safer zones in the urban areas. Slum and Informal settlements, often located along river valleys and on unstable slopes, face disproportionate risk of inundation, landslides and related public-health crises.
While rapid urban expansion has produced widespread sub-standard housing, dilapidation alone should not be equated with “informal settlement” in Addis Ababa. Many of the city’s most deteriorated units sit inside formal kebele rental blocks that were legally planned but have suffered decades of neglect, whereas numerous peri-urban homes erected outside the leasehold system are structurally sound yet lack secure tenure, trunk infrastructure, or affordable service connections. Informality in Addis operates along a continuum, encompassing legality of land occupation, compliance with building regulations, access to basic services, and exposure to environmental hazards.
The legal and institutional framework is evolving but remains fragmented. Ethiopia’s Urban Land Lease Holding Proclamation No. 721/2011 establishes leasehold as the principal tenure system and mandates competitive allocation of urban land; however, implementation gaps and rigid minimum-plot standards have slowed regularization of informal areas and complicated in-situ upgrading. At the same time, Addis Ababa’s administration has embarked on corridor-based redevelopment, transit modernization and a forthcoming structure-plan update, creating a timely opening to align satellite-derived settlement evidence with policy reform and investment programming.
Against this backdrop, the proposed assignment will analyze the growth of slum and informal settlements and synthesize the findings with a comprehensive policy review. The consultant will lead the policy diagnostics, integrate geospatial outputs, and produce reports with actionable insights that help the city and development partners steer Addis Ababa toward inclusive, resilient and climate responsive urban growth.
Objectives of the Consultancy
Materials
The core data set comprises cloud-free Landsat 5/7/8/9 scenes covering Addis Ababa and a 3 km peri-urban buffer for every 5 year between 1995 and 2024 (30 m resolution), complemented by ancillary vector layers such as digitized building footprints, road and utility networks, topographic hazard layers (steep slopes and flood prone zones), cadastral parcels with tenure information (if available), and official zoning shapefiles. Policy review will be drawn from national land, housing and urbanization statutes, master-plan regulations and sector strategies issued from 1995-2024.
Scope of Work
1. Inception & framing – refine research questions, review data delivered by WRI, map stakeholders, literature review, and submit an inception report within two weeks of contract start.
2. Policy and regulatory analysis – gather and analyze statutes (e.g., Urban Land Lease Proclamation 721/2011, Structure Plan revisions) and provide brief case studies of relevant upgrading initiatives such as condominium housing, corridor development initiatives, and Lideta area upgrading.
3. Integration of spatial and policy datasets – overlay WRI’s classified settlement layers with zoning, hazard and infrastructure datasets; visualize policy periods against spatial indicators.
4. Stakeholder engagement – design and moderate at least two consultation workshops with city bureaus, community representatives, corridor-project teams WRI and the Ministry.
5. Drafting & validation – compile the full analytical narrative, embed maps, tables and references, circulate a draft for review, and facilitate a validation workshop.
6. Finalization & dissemination – revise and deliver the policy brief and draft publication report. The final report should cover the following sections:
a) Introduction (background, Methodology),
b) Historical policy review and brief case studies of upgrading initiatives,
c) Characteristics of slum and informal settlements,
d) Analysis of changes of slum and informal settlements over the study period,
e) Impact of policies on slum and informal settlement dynamics
f) Conclusion and policy recommendation
Expected Deliverables
Deliverable
Timing
Payment share
Approved inception report (detailed methodology, work plan, and table of contents)
Week 2
25%
Integrated draft report with spatial policy analysis, brief case studies, and preliminary recommendations
Month 2
50%
Final report, policy brief, and workshop proceedings
Month 3
25%
Mode of Payment
WRI will pay for the consultancy service and cover workshop costs. Payments will be affected by bank transfer upon validation of each milestone as indicated above.
How to Apply
Interested applicants should email a technical proposal (max 10 pages) and a separate financial proposal to agraw.ali@wri.org no later than 4 July 2025 at 18:00 EAT. The technical proposal must outline the analytical approach, provide a detailed timeline, and include CVs of key experts.
Required Qualifications and Experience
Institutional Arrangement and Reporting
The consultant will report to WRI Africa’s Cities Program Lead (Addis Ababa) and coordinate closely with the Ministry of Urban and Infrastructure.
Duration of the Work
All activities, including inception, analysis, validation and finalization, must be completed within three months of contract signature.
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